Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
68 forecasts
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Netanyahu will make at least one additional public request for Trump's backing within 30 days, beyond the two calls in the last three days.
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Saudi Arabia will not issue any public statement endorsing normalization with Israel within 30 days, maintaining its current posture of public criticism despite private channels remaining open.
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Iran will publicly reject the US naval blockade in a new official statement within 30 days, even as the Hormuz proposal remains on the table.
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The number of journalists jailed in Turkey will exceed 20 within 90 days, continuing the current rate of arrests.
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Turkey will publicly reiterate its opposition to any military strike on Iran within 30 days, possibly through another Fidan statement or a joint declaration with Iran.
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The UAE will secure at least one additional permanent UN Security Council member's public endorsement of Lana Nusseibeh's candidacy for UN secretary-general within 30 days.
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Greece will file a formal diplomatic protest or legal objection against the Turkey-Libya maritime delimitation agreement within 30 days.
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The UK government will not revoke its proscription of Palestine Action within 90 days, though it may announce a review of the ban's implementation.
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The US and Israel will announce at least one new bilateral defense or security arrangement within 90 days, following Hegseth's visit.
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The US, China, and Russia will not hold a three-way leaders' summit within the next 30 days.
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European Union member states will keep the question of suspending Israel's preferred trade status unresolved over the next 30 days, with no published Council decision suspending the association agreement's trade provisions.
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The Trump administration will not fully lift the freeze on most Russia sanctions within 30 days; the executive order will remain in force without a signed reversal or a formal reimposition announcement.
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Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional country announcing new sanctions or recalling its ambassador from Tehran.
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China will issue at least one further public statement or diplomatic note specifically criticizing Israeli settlement activity within 30 days, extending the Baku demand into a sustained pattern.
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China will not broker a formal agreement or joint communiqué between Israel and the Palestinian Authority within 90 days, despite the Baku meetings.
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Egypt's President Sisi will issue at least one further public statement or diplomatic protest regarding Israeli officials' remarks about Sinai within 30 days, extending the current response into a pattern rather than a one-off.
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The UK government will issue at least one additional public statement or report providing more specific details about the RAF Fairford bomb plot within 30 days.
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Netanyahu will face increased public criticism from within the US Democratic Party establishment over the next 30 days, as Gordon's allegations provide fresh talking points. Reference class: US Democratic criticism of Netanyahu after a former official's detailed accusations (2015-2026); base rate ~55% for a spike within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to Gordon's specific timing and the ongoing election season.
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The International Committee of the Red Cross will issue at least one further public statement or interview acknowledging gaps in its hostage-negotiation role within 30 days, as Spoljaric's admission invites follow-up pressure.
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The Spanish government's collapse, triggered by the Abascal eviction protests, will lead to a snap election being called within 30 days.
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The UAE will not approve a replacement rescue flight for Israir within 30 days, maintaining the cancellation as a diplomatic signal.
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New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani will not accept Ofir Akunis's invitation to view the October 7 atrocity film within 30 days, as doing so would alienate his progressive base.
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The UK-Israel diplomatic crisis will escalate, with either side expelling at least 10 diplomats within 30 days, following the reciprocal expulsion threats.
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Syria will escalate its diplomatic campaign against Israeli incursions at the UN within 30 days, seeking a formal Security Council resolution. Reference class: Syrian UN complaints post-2024; base rate ~55% for a formal resolution request within 30 days of a major incursion report. Confidence adjusted up due to the 1,300 incursions figure and the completion of the 'Sufa 53 Line'.
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The U.S. and Japan will not reach a new Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) revision for Okinawa within 90 days following the murder arrest of Lance Cpl. Blood. Reference class: U.S.-Japan SOFA revision attempts (1995-2026); base rate ~30% for any revision within 90 days of a major incident. Confidence adjusted down due to the complexity of SOFA negotiations and Japanese domestic politics.
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The UK will officially attribute the attempted attack near RAF Fairford to Iranian actors within 30 days, following the 'strong indication' from Prime Minister Burnham.
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The US Senate will not pass a resolution requiring a report on West Bank violence within 90 days, given the 51-47 vote to block it.
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The UAE will not publicly host an Israeli opposition leader for an official meeting within 90 days, despite reported invitations to Gadi Eisenkot.
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The US will not announce a new security assistance package for the Kurdistan Regional Government within 30 days, despite Barzani's public criticism.
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The US will publicly name at least one country that has complied with its ultimatum to cut trade with Iran within 30 days.
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Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional European country announcing new sanctions on Iranian banking or aviation sectors.
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The Colombian embassy opening in Jerusalem will proceed as planned within 90 days, despite regional tensions. Reference class: Embassy openings in Jerusalem (2018-2025); base rate ~85% for proceeding as announced. Confidence adjusted down due to potential domestic political shifts in Colombia.
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At least two additional Latin American countries will follow Colombia in downgrading or severing diplomatic relations with Iran within 90 days, as the region's diplomatic alignment shifts. Reference class: Latin American diplomatic breaks with Iran (2009-2025); base rate ~20% for two or more countries within 90 days of a single break. Confidence adjusted up due to the current geopolitical climate and US pressure.
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No UN Security Council resolution will be adopted that conditions Gaza reconstruction on Hamas disarmament within 90 days, as Russia and China would likely veto such a measure. Reference class: UNSC resolutions on Gaza since October 7; base rate ~25% for adoption of any resolution. Confidence adjusted up due to the clear veto threat.
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Israel's 'The UN's Lie Industry' campaign will not result in any measurable change in UN voting patterns on Israel-related resolutions within 30 days. Reference class: Israeli diplomatic campaigns at the UN (2010-2025); base rate ~15% for shifting voting patterns within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the campaign's late start relative to the General Assembly session.
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Syria will not sign a formal economic cooperation agreement with the US within 90 days, as the Russian military resupply at Tartus complicates any binding commitment to Washington.
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Turkey will publicly protest the Israeli-Greek naval exercise within 90 days, escalating its rhetoric against Israel's military cooperation in the eastern Mediterranean.
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Netanyahu's secret offer of Israeli intelligence and military assistance to Saudi Arabia against the Houthis will not result in a signed bilateral agreement within 90 days, given the Saudi condition of a two-state solution.
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Saudi Arabia will announce a formal partnership with a foreign state for uranium enrichment within 90 days of the ore discovery. Reference class: Saudi nuclear cooperation agreements (2015-2025); base rate ~40% for a formal announcement within 90 days of a resource find. Confidence adjusted up due to the scale of the discovery and existing US-Saudi civilian nuclear talks.
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The UAE will not publicly confirm or deny the Haaretz report of a pre-October 7 warning within 90 days, maintaining its current stance of nondenial. Reference class: UAE official responses to leaks about private diplomatic communications (2015-2025); base rate ~25% for a definitive confirmation or denial within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the UAE's consistent policy of avoiding public confirmation of sensitive intelligence sharing.
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Gulf state public criticism of the US security partnership will intensify over the next 90 days, with at least one more senior official from a Gulf state (UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or Bahrain) publicly calling for independent security capabilities. Reference class: Gulf state public statements on US security partnership (2015-2025); base rate ~35% for a senior official's public call for independence within 90 days of a major war. Confidence adjusted up due to the explicit calls from Qatar and UAE within 24 hours, suggesting a coordinated push.
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The US will not announce a new diplomatic framework for Iran nuclear talks within 90 days, as the administration shifts toward a military posture.
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The US Treasury will designate at least one additional bank for facilitating Iranian shadow banking within 90 days, as 'Operation Economic Outcast' expands its target list.
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Huckabee will not make another public visit to a Palestinian village in the West Bank within the next 90 days.
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Milei will not secure a bilateral meeting with UK Prime Minister over the Falklands within 90 days, as the shift in tone alienates British officials. Reference class: Argentine-UK diplomatic engagements on Falklands (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for a bilateral meeting within 90 days of a sovereignty statement. Confidence adjusted up due to Milei's prior pro-UK stance and the UK's likely refusal to engage.
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Syria and Chevron will not sign a final agreement for the Basra-Baniyas pipeline within 90 days, as the security situation in Syria and the scale of investment remain prohibitive.
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Iran will not resume full IAEA inspector access to its enrichment facilities within 90 days, as the regime continues to conceal its nuclear activities amid US pressure. Reference class: Iran-IAEA access disputes (2019-2026); base rate ~20% for full access resumption within 90 days of a report. Confidence adjusted up due to the long duration of the block (since June 2025) and the escalating US strikes.
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Turkey will not formally apply for SCO full membership within 90 days, as the diplomatic cost of antagonizing NATO partners outweighs the symbolic benefit.
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Israel will not impose retaliatory sanctions against Britain within 90 days, despite Sa'ar's threat, as the diplomatic cost of escalating with a key European partner outweighs the benefit.
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Finland will not reverse its UNRWA funding decision within 90 days, as the domestic political calculus tied to the April elections will outweigh international pressure.