Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
138 forecasts
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Israeli public criticism of Vice President Vance will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one senior Israeli official publicly questioning his reliability.
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Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify over the next 30 days, with the US seeking to rally Arab states against Iran.
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The US will establish a backchannel communication with Iran within 30 days to prevent accidental clashes in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Israeli public diplomacy efforts will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one new government initiative aimed at improving Israel's image among American Jews and Democrats.
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Iran will continue to deny any agreement on nuclear inspections despite U.S. claims, leading to a stalemate in negotiations within 30 days.
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The IAEA inspectors will not physically arrive in Iran within the next 7 days despite Vance's announcement, due to internal Iranian opposition.
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The US-Iran talks will produce a framework agreement within 30 days, but implementation will face delays due to internal opposition in both countries.
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The US-Qatar humanitarian fund release for Iran will be delayed by at least 30 days due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
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Washington's expanded contacts with the Israeli opposition will lead to at least one public meeting between a senior US official and an opposition leader within 90 days.
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The Meloni-Trump photo-op dispute will lead to a cooling of US-Italy bilateral engagements over the next 30 days, with at least one scheduled high-level meeting postponed or canceled.
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European Union divisions on Israel sanctions will widen, with at least two more member states publicly opposing sanctions in the next 30 days.
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Israeli public distrust of Trump on the Iran deal will remain above 65% over the next 30 days, as measured by subsequent polls.
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The US will publicly reiterate its demand for Israel to halt operations in Lebanon within 30 days, but Israel will not comply.
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European countries will announce concrete conditions for lifting sanctions on Iran within 7 days.
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The US-Iran memorandum will be signed on June 14 despite Iranian denials, but will face immediate implementation hurdles.
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European diplomatic pressure on Israel will intensify over the next 90 days as Portugal's condemnation and Ireland's boycott bill set a precedent.
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Netanyahu will publicly reject the emerging US-Iran nuclear deal within 30 days, citing security concerns.
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The Board of Peace's Gaza governance plan will face significant delays as Tony Blair's expanded role fails to overcome differences among stakeholders.
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The release of Hassan Yousef will amplify internal pressure on Hamas to negotiate a ceasefire, as his moderate stance may be leveraged by external mediators.
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Turkey will increase its diplomatic mediation between the US and Iran over the next 30 days, leveraging its relationship with both sides.
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Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days without significant sanctions relief.
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Iran will not close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait within 30 days, despite threats, as doing so would risk a wider US military response.
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Trump will not declare 'total victory' over Iran within two weeks; instead, negotiations will continue without a breakthrough.
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US-Iran negotiations will continue over the next 30 days, with no final agreement reached, as Iran demands sanctions relief upfront.
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US pressure on Israel to de-escalate with Iran will increase, as Trump seeks to avoid a broader regional war.
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The EU will expand sanctions on Iranian entities within 30 days, following the recent sanctions on two Iranians and an IRGC unit for the Hormuz blockade.
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Berri's ceasefire offer will not lead to a formal agreement within 30 days due to Hezbollah's refusal to disarm.
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France will announce new sanctions on Israeli settlers and entities within 30 days, given Barrot's threat of imminent action.
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The US will not finalize a purchase of the Chagos Islands within 90 days, given the complexity of negotiations with Mauritius.
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The US will not announce an end to security aid to Israel by July 4, 2026, despite Stutzman's push, as Trump's Iran strategy requires maintaining leverage over Israel.
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The US and Iran will announce a framework agreement on nuclear negotiations within 30 days, despite Trump's ultimatum.
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US and Iran will not finalize a nuclear deal within 7 days, given the deadlock and $24B demand.
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Israel and Hezbollah will not reach a finalized ceasefire agreement within 7 days, given Berri's 'vague' criticism and the gap between Ravid's optimism and Trump's Iran-first strategy.
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The US House will not pass any resolution to remove troops from Lebanon within 7 days, given the 92-324 vote blocking Tlaib's resolution.
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US and Iran will not finalize a nuclear deal by June 6, 2026, despite Trump's claim that a deal could be reached by the weekend.
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Israel will publicly announce a temporary freeze on settlement expansion within 30 days, following US pressure and the House vote limiting Trump's Iran war powers.
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Iran will officially announce within 7 days that it has agreed to allow IAEA inspectors access to declared nuclear facilities as part of ongoing US negotiations.
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The United States will publicly deny any agreement to establish a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran within 30 days.