Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
138 forecasts
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The political-security cabinet will approve a harsher military response in southern Lebanon within 30 days, despite US pressure.
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The second-track talks involving former UK, French, and German officials will be publicly acknowledged by at least one participating country's government within 30 days.
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The Board of Peace will revise its disarmament plan to address Israel's objections within 30 days.
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Serbia's defense exports to Israel will continue to grow over the next 90 days, driven by the Elbit Systems deal and the 2026 intelligence-sharing agreement.
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Rebeca Grynspan will face increased scrutiny from permanent Security Council members over her stance on Israel-Palestine issues, potentially affecting her candidacy.
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The US and Israel will sign a new MoU within 90 days that shifts from direct FMF to a joint R&D fund, reflecting Netanyahu's proposal.
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Iran will not agree to joint management of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, maintaining its demand for majority control.
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The US will publicly endorse Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities within 30 days, following the Netanyahu-Trump meeting.
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The United States will impose new restrictions on Israeli military operations in the West Bank within 90 days, following the Turmus Ayya incident.
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The US will impose new sanctions on Iranian state media outlets Mehr and Tasnim within 30 days in response to the threats against Melania Trump.
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The Adams-Pahlavi meeting will be followed by at least one public statement of support from a major Israeli political figure within 30 days.
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The internal Iranian power struggle between civilian leadership and Revolutionary Guards will become more visible, with at least one public policy rift reported in major media within 90 days.
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The proposed London summit on the Strait of Hormuz will convene within 30 days, with participation from at least 20 of the 40 invited countries.
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The security cabinet will authorize a new operational directive targeting Iranian proxy cells in the West Bank within 30 days.
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The Temple Mount status quo will be reaffirmed by a public statement from the Prime Minister's Office or the Defense Ministry within 30 days, following today's right-wing ascension.
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The US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement signed tonight will face at least one formal objection from a European ally within 30 days.
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Netanyahu's US trip will be officially confirmed or canceled within 7 days.
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Pakistan will publicly reaffirm its defense commitment to Saudi Arabia within 30 days, amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
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At least one additional Arab state will join the military coalition against the Houthis within 90 days, following the pattern of Kuwait and the UAE.
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The incoming Colombian government will formally withdraw from the ICJ genocide lawsuit against Israel within 90 days, following the agreement between Sa'ar and Escobar.
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The US-Israel relationship will face a public rift within 90 days, as Arab diplomatic pressure on Trump to distance from Netanyahu intensifies.
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The Strait of Hormuz will remain partially navigable for commercial shipping over the next 30 days, despite Iranian threats, as both sides avoid a full blockade.
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The Israeli Defense Ministry's strategic plan with India will yield a formal memorandum of understanding or joint defense project announcement within 90 days.
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Saudi Arabia will publicly reiterate its conditions for normalization with Israel, including the replacement of Netanyahu, within 30 days.
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Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify, with at least one Gulf state publicly condemning Iran's actions within 30 days.
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Brazil's Flávio Bolsonaro will publicly reiterate his pledge to move the embassy to Jerusalem if elected, but no concrete diplomatic steps will be taken before the 2026 election.
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Rafael's factory in India will begin production of Iron Dome interceptors within 90 days, as a strategic move to diversify supply chains.
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Qatar's veto of the Volkswagen-Rafael deal will not be overturned, and Rafael will advance its India production line as an alternative.
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Egyptian mediation efforts will intensify but fail to produce a ceasefire breakthrough within 30 days due to Hamas refusal to disarm.
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The bill to freeze additional funds to the Palestinian Authority will advance to a second reading within 30 days, but will face legal challenges.
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Iraq's deadline for militia disarmament will not be met, leading to increased tensions with the US.
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The US revocation of the Iranian oil permit will lead to increased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, likely resulting in further attacks on commercial vessels.
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The Irish ban on settlement imports will be followed by at least one other EU member state introducing similar legislation within 90 days.
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Emanuel's criticism of Netanyahu will be echoed by additional US Democratic figures, increasing pressure on the administration to condition aid.
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The water dispute with Jordan will escalate diplomatically, with Jordan raising the issue at the UN or Arab League within 30 days.
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NATO summit will not agree to Trump's 5% GDP demand; final communiqué will reference a lower target or no specific number.
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The EU will not impose trade restrictions on Judea and Samaria products within 30 days, but the proposal will generate diplomatic friction.
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Iran will not release the Foremans within 90 days, but the hunger strike will increase international pressure on Tehran.
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Israel-Azerbaijan relations will experience a cooling period with at least one public diplomatic incident within 90 days.
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US will not approve F-35 sale to Turkey within 30 days, but the issue will remain publicly contested.
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The NATO summit in Istanbul will produce a commitment to increase defense spending targets but will not agree on a concrete timeline for Ukraine's membership.
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The US-Israel relationship will see increased public friction over military operations, with at least one more critical statement from a senior US official within 30 days.
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Israel-Venezuela relations will advance to the opening of a diplomatic representative office within 90 days, following the aid delegation.
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The US review of military cooperation with Saudi Arabia will lead to a formal reduction in joint exercises or arms sales within 90 days.
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Turkey will retaliate diplomatically against Israel within 30 days, possibly by expelling the Israeli ambassador or downgrading relations.
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The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz will intensify, with Iran rejecting the US demand for free navigation and possibly conducting naval exercises in the strait.
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The US-Iran talks scheduled for June 30 in Doha will not take place as announced, due to conflicting statements from both sides.
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Romania's SPYDER deal with Rafael will face no significant EU procurement hurdles and will proceed to delivery within 90 days.
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Slovenia's embassy move to Jerusalem will face procedural delays or EU pushback over the next 30 days.
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Iran's legal campaign against Israel and the US will gain symbolic traction in non-aligned forums over the next 30 days, but will not result in formal proceedings.