Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
138 forecasts
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At least one additional Arab state will publicly distance itself from either Algeria or the UAE within 30 days of the severance announcement.
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The shift in Palestinian public opinion toward negotiations will be cited by at least one Western foreign ministry as a basis for renewed peace initiative discussions within 30 days.
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The UK-Israel diplomatic confrontation over personal sanctions will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional Israeli retaliatory measure beyond the street renaming proposal.
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The UAE will not publicly confirm or deny the Haaretz report of a pre-October 7 warning within 90 days, maintaining its current stance of nondenial. Reference class: UAE official responses to leaks about private diplomatic communications (2015-2025); base rate ~25% for a definitive confirmation or denial within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the UAE's consistent policy of avoiding public confirmation of sensitive intelligence sharing.
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Gulf state public criticism of the US security partnership will intensify over the next 90 days, with at least one more senior official from a Gulf state (UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or Bahrain) publicly calling for independent security capabilities. Reference class: Gulf state public statements on US security partnership (2015-2025); base rate ~35% for a senior official's public call for independence within 90 days of a major war. Confidence adjusted up due to the explicit calls from Qatar and UAE within 24 hours, suggesting a coordinated push.
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The US will not announce a new diplomatic framework for Iran nuclear talks within 90 days, as the administration shifts toward a military posture.
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The US Treasury will designate at least one additional bank for facilitating Iranian shadow banking within 90 days, as 'Operation Economic Outcast' expands its target list.
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The public tension between US ambassador Huckabee's stated positions and Israeli ministerial rhetoric on Gaza deportation will intensify over the next 30 days.
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The Witkoff-Kushner mission to Moscow and Kyiv will not produce a public ceasefire framework within 30 days of their visit. Reference class: US diplomatic missions to Russia-Ukraine talks (2022-2026); base rate ~25% for a public framework within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the high-profile envoys and renewed US focus, but down due to entrenched positions. Expected indicators: confirming — no joint statement or framework announced within 30 days; falsifying — a public ceasefire framework is announced. Prerequisites: []
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Huckabee will not make another public visit to a Palestinian village in the West Bank within the next 90 days.
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Milei will not secure a bilateral meeting with UK Prime Minister over the Falklands within 90 days, as the shift in tone alienates British officials. Reference class: Argentine-UK diplomatic engagements on Falklands (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for a bilateral meeting within 90 days of a sovereignty statement. Confidence adjusted up due to Milei's prior pro-UK stance and the UK's likely refusal to engage.
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Syria and Chevron will not sign a final agreement for the Basra-Baniyas pipeline within 90 days, as the security situation in Syria and the scale of investment remain prohibitive.
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The US will not announce a withdrawal of naval forces from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, despite internal debate, as the risk of a global energy crisis remains high.
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Iran will not resume full IAEA inspector access to its enrichment facilities within 90 days, as the regime continues to conceal its nuclear activities amid US pressure. Reference class: Iran-IAEA access disputes (2019-2026); base rate ~20% for full access resumption within 90 days of a report. Confidence adjusted up due to the long duration of the block (since June 2025) and the escalating US strikes.
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Additional European countries will announce purchases of Israeli air-defense systems within 30 days, following the Achilles Shield deal and the LORA test. Reference class: European air-defense procurement from Israel (2021-2025); base rate ~80% for follow-on deals within 30 days of a major test. Confidence adjusted up due to the LORA test's strategic timing amid tensions with Russia.
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Turkey will not formally apply for SCO full membership within 90 days, as the diplomatic cost of antagonizing NATO partners outweighs the symbolic benefit.
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Israel will not impose retaliatory sanctions against Britain within 90 days, despite Sa'ar's threat, as the diplomatic cost of escalating with a key European partner outweighs the benefit.
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Britain will announce its comprehensive package of measures regarding Israeli settlements within 30 days, as Miliband's stated timeline narrows the window for delay.
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China will announce new investment deals with Egypt worth at least $5 billion within 30 days of Xi's visit, as part of the Belt and Road expansion.
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Finland will not reverse its UNRWA funding decision within 90 days, as the domestic political calculus tied to the April elections will outweigh international pressure.
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Iran will not return to nuclear negotiations with the US within the next 30 days, as it conditions talks on the US first fulfilling commitments, a precondition the administration is unlikely to meet.
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Saudi Arabia will seek alternative military partners for the Houthi campaign within 30 days, after the US refusal to lead.
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The US will formally request allied nations to replenish Patriot and THAAD stocks within 90 days, acknowledging the depletion from the war with Iran.
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Russia will not launch a major new offensive in Ukraine within 90 days, despite the perception of US weakness, as its own military capacity remains constrained.
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The Volkswagen-Iron Dome production deal will face a public veto threat from the Qatari investment fund within 30 days, potentially delaying the conversion of the Osnabrück plant.
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CIA Director Ratcliffe's unannounced Moscow visit will be followed by a public statement from the Kremlin or the White House confirming a specific area of discussion within 30 days.
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Turkish diplomatic pressure on Syria will intensify over the next 30 days, following the US delisting and Israeli-Syrian talks.
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Pakistan will publicly announce a mediation initiative between the US and Iran within 30 days, leveraging Munir's visit to Tehran.
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US special envoys will increasingly preface remarks on occupied territories with explicit disclaimers that they are describing UN positions, not US policy, over the next 30 days.
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Israel will bar at least one more European politician or delegation from entering the country within 90 days, citing anti-Israel positions.
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The US will not allow Mahmoud Abbas to address the UN General Assembly next month, despite his appeal to Erdogan.
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Japan will publicly distance itself from the ICC blacklisting decision over the next 30 days, issuing a formal statement of concern or abstaining from a related vote.
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Diplomatic pressure on Israel over the World Central Kitchen killings will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one more country summoning Israel's ambassador or issuing a formal protest.
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Over the next 90 days, the Ukrainian government will not hold wartime elections, but will announce a formal proposal for a legal framework to enable them, following Fedorov's call.
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Over the next 30 days, the US-Hamas channel will produce at least one public statement from either side confirming progress on the 15-point roadmap, but no final agreement on Hamas disarmament will be announced.
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The US-Iran 'talks' will remain unacknowledged by Iran over the next 30 days, with no official meeting between US and Iranian officials confirmed by either side.
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The Iran-Qatar dispute over the three pilots will remain unresolved, with no public release or repatriation of the pilots within 90 days.
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Gulf states will increase public criticism of the US military presence over the next 30 days, with at least two official statements or media reports questioning basing agreements.
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Israeli media coverage of 'threat stories' will decline by at least 30% from the August 9-11 peak, as public scrutiny of fake news increases.
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Kushner's regional initiative will produce at least one new bilateral agreement or public framework involving Israel, Egypt, or Gulf states within 90 days.
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Japan will issue a formal diplomatic protest to Russia over the Kuril visit and escalate rhetoric in the coming 30 days.
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US-Israel intelligence friction over Iran will surface publicly, with at least one official or leaked report questioning Israeli credibility on Iranian threats within 90 days.
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Iran will publicly reiterate or expand its conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz in at least one official statement or interview within 90 days.
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Egypt will publicly comment on the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan alliance within 30 days, either endorsing or distancing itself from joining.
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The Gulf states will intensify diplomatic pressure on the United States to ease the blockade, with at least two GCC members publicly calling for a negotiated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 90 days.
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International pressure on Hamas to disarm will intensify over the next 90 days, with at least one UN Security Council resolution or major statement calling for disarmament.
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Greek authorities will increase police presence at pro-Palestinian protests over the next 90 days, aiming to prevent clashes with Israeli tourists.
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The multinational force in Gaza will deploy fewer than 500 soldiers within 90 days, falling short of the expected Moroccan contribution.
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Spain will begin transferring migrant minors from Ceuta to mainland Spain within 30 days, prioritizing girls as announced.
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Iranian parliamentary pressure to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one formal committee vote on the bill.